MOSL: ECOSCOPE-CPI inflation in line with expectations; Expect RBI to prioritize weak GDP growth over higher inflation
ECOSCOPE: CPI inflation in line with expectations; Expect RBI to prioritize weak GDP growth over higher inflation
- CPI-based inflation came in at 4.6% in Oct'19, in line with our estimate and slightly higher than consensus of 4.4%. Note that inflation stood at 4.0% in Sep'19 and 3.4% in Oct'18.
- Food inflation was at 7.8% in the month, higher than our estimate of 7.2% and 5.1% in Sep'19, primarily led by 'Vegetables,' where inflation inched up to a 21-month high of 26.1% from 15.5% in the previous month. Inflation also accelerated to 3.1% in 'Milk and Products' and 2.2% in 'Cereals and products.' The aforementioned three items together constitute ~22% weight in the CPI basket.
- As against our expectation of 3.7%, core inflation (excluding 'Food and beverages', 'Fuel and light' and 'Pan, tobacco and intoxicants') came in at 3.3% in Oct'19 - the lowest since the new series began in 2011.
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