MOSL: ECOSCOPE-Economic activity growth at 7-month high in May 2017-Supported primarily by fiscal spending
​ECOSCOPE: Economic activity growth at 7-month high in May 2017; Supported primarily by fiscal spending
- India's monthly economic activity index (EAI) grew 5.9% YoY in May 2017, marking its highest growth in the seven months since demonetization. However, the growth is still lower than ~6.5% in the pre-demonetization period.
- Further details show that consumption activities grew at a 22-month high of 12.6% YoY in May 2017, primarily supported by ~69% YoY growth in government consumption. Investments, on the other hand, grew at a 3-month low of 0.7% due to (an estimated) faster decline in capital goods.
- It appears that advancing of the Union Budget has helped disburse funds rapidly this year, because of which fiscal spending is witnessing immense growth. However, private investments remain weak and external trade is worsening. We expect real GDP growth at ~6.5% YoY in 1QFY18.
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