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MOSL: ECOSCOPE-Employment generation picks up in 2QFY18-Elasticity improves in 1H

ECOSCOPE: Employment generation picks up in 2QFY18; Elasticity improves in 1H

 

• Eight selected sectors (manufacturing, construction, trade, transport, accommodation & restaurant, IT/BPO, education and health), which constitute ~81% of total employment at units with 10 or more workers, added 136,000 workers in 2QFY18. This is significantly higher than the addition of 32,000 jobs in 2QFY17 and average quarterly addition of 102,000 in the last four quarters. Total employment increased 2.5% YoY to 21.1m by end-2QFY18.
• The manufacturing sector was the top job creator, adding as many as 89,000 workers in 2QFY18, entirely offsetting the employment loss of 87,000 in 1QFY18. The quality of jobs, however, deteriorated, as half of the new jobs created were either casual or contractual, while regular employees grew at a slower pace. Casual workforce, in particular, had declined in four of the last five quarters.

With real non-farm GVA growth (excluding public administration & defense) of 5.9% in 1HFY18, employment elasticity improved to ~0.42x, higher than ~0.30x in FY17 but slower than average of 0.46x in the recent decade (ending FY15).