MOSL: ECOSCOPE-Ghosts of previous stance could delay rate cut-However, a 50bp cut, and not a 25bp cut, is looming
​ECOSCOPE: Ghosts of previous stance could delay rate cut; However, a 50bp cut, and not a 25bp cut, is looming
In its upcoming monetary policy on August 2, 2017, a majority of the participants expect RBI to cut policy rates by 25 basis points (bp), bringing repo rate to 6%. We believe that the RBI must show conviction in the massive disinflation in the economy and announce a 50bp cut rather than a customary 25bp cut. However, the fear of “it’s too early to take a U-turn†and the challenge of a simultaneous change in the mindset of three committee members (out of five) might postpone the rate cut to October 2017. In any case, we believe a 50bp rate cut is imminent.
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