MOSL: ECOSCOPE-India’s 2018 Economic Outlook-Moving from a remarkable year to a calm year
​​ECOSCOPE: India’s 2018 Economic Outlook; Moving from a remarkable year to a calm year
2017 was a remarkable year in many ways. Retail inflation was the lowest in almost four decades, the Indian Rupee (INR) strengthened against the US Dollar (USD) for the first time in seven years, and the path-breaking Goods & services tax (GST) finally became a reality. However, as the year ends, concerns about fiscal deficit target, economic recovery and inflation uptick have started to emerge.
Against this backdrop, we pen down our forecasts for the next two years. We believe that while real GDP growth will remain sub-7% for the second consecutive year, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will likely choose to look through low base-driven high inflation and the INR may weaken only mildly against the USD. Fiscal profligacy, crude oil prices and an uncertain global economic recovery, however, are the key risks to our forecasts.
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