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Nikhil Gupta
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MOSL: ECOSCOPE-RBI expected to adopt a delicate balancing act-Separating cyclical from structural issues need of the hour

ECOSCOPE: RBI expected to adopt a delicate balancing act; Separating cyclical from structural issues need of the hour

 

  • The pressure on the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to cut interest rates this week has mounted dramatically, considering the 20-quarter slowest headline GDP growth of 5.8% in 4QFY19 and the headline inflation at sub-3%. Whether the RBI should complement it further with liquidity-easing measures is also debated. In the to boost the economy, the RBI is expected to maintain a delicate balance between short-term relief and long-term strategy.
  • While the RBI considers the demand for an easy monetary policy, it must also ensure its pass-through to the real economy. Thus, it is imperative to separate cyclical factors from structural issues that grip the economy. If the current liquidity concerns and economic slowdown are attributed to structural factors, not only will the transmission be difficult, but the effectiveness of monetary easing will also be limited, implying that the pain is inevitable.
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Motilal Oswal
Motilal Oswal

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Nikhil Gupta

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