Report
Gautam Duggad

MOSL: INDIA STRATEGY | 4QFY17 Earnings Review-Aggregate performance masks underlying weak operating dynamics

​INDIA STRATEGY | 4QFY17 Earnings Review: Aggregate performance masks underlying weak operating dynamics

Ten key takeaways from 4QFY17 and FY17 earnings season

  • 4QFY17 earnings season concluded with aggregate MOSL Universe headline numbers meeting our expectations and Nifty earnings beating expectations by 6%.
  • Nifty has rounded off FY17 with 8% earnings growth, while the broader MOSL Universe posted 15% earnings growth.
  • However, looking beyond the numbers, the underlying operating performance still doesn’t exhibit broad-based strength. 42% of our Universe reported profit decline v/s 34% in 3QFY17.
  • The 4QFY17 beat at Nifty PAT level is accounted for by just four companies - Tata Motors, Tata Steel, L&T and Reliance.
  • Cyclicals drove the quarterly performance, aided by low base. Defensives posted another quarter of earnings decline, dragged by Technology and Healthcare. Contribution of Defensives to our Universe PAT shrank further.
  • For our broader Universe, PSU Banks, Metals and Oil & Gas accounted for 110% of the YoY delta in MOSL Universe PAT.
  • Impact of demonetization is waning in B2C sectors, with QoQ revenue growth rebounding for FMCG and Auto.
  • Housing Finance – a multi-year growth opportunity – posted another quarter of strong performance, with profit growth for individual companies ranging from 18% to 30%.


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Motilal Oswal
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Analysts
Gautam Duggad

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