Report
Team Research

MOSL: Morning India (02/November/18): 1. HDFC; 2. IndusInd Bank; 3. India Politics; 4. United Spirits; 5. Marico; 6. HPCL; 7. GSK Consumer; 8. Dalmia Bharat; 9. Cummins India; 10. Tata Comm

MOrning India (02/November/18): 1. HDFC; 2. IndusInd Bank; 3. India Politics; 4. United Spirits; 5. Marico; 6. HPCL; 7. GSK Consumer; 8. Dalmia Bharat; 9. Cummins India; 10. Tata Comm

 

Today’s top research idea

HDFC – Healthy core operating performance

  • HDFC's PAT increased 25% YoY to INR24.7b (a 9% miss due to prudent provisioning from one-off gains), driven by healthy AUM growth (17% YOY and 3% QoQ) and stable spreads (2.28%).
  • NII grew 21% YoY (3% beat). Adjusted for upfront gain on assignment, NII increased 16% YoY, largely in line with AUM growth of 17%.
  • GNPA ratio declined 5bp QoQ to 1.13%, driven by a 14bp QoQ decline in corporate GNPLs to 2.18%.
  • On a YTD basis, HDFC has taken a yield hike of 65-70bp on retail loans and 130-150bp on corporate loans (of which 50-60bp is in 3Q) this should help spreads in rising cost of funds
  • HDFC's loan growth is impressive, despite intense competition and a high base. The current liquidity situation presents HDFC with the opportunity to gain market share as competitive intensity moderates. Given vintage and strong relationships, HDFC has been able to raise money from multiple sources comfortably, albeit at slightly higher rates. It also has a huge public deposit base approaching INR1t - this source of sticky retail money will be a huge advantage over peers. Buy with an SOTP-based TP (Sept'20E based) of INR2,140.

Piping hot news

GST collection crosses Rs 1-trillion mark for the second time in 2018-19

  • Goods and services tax (GST) collection crossed the trillion mark for the second time in 2018-19. The mop-up touched Rs 1.01 trillion in October, up 6.6 per cent from September’s collection of Rs 944 billion. Experts attributed this to pick-up in demand in the run-up to the festival season, and the closing of input tax claims for 2017-18. In April, Rs 1.03 trillion was collected.
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