MOSL: Morning India (10/October/19): 1. Ecoscope (4QCY19: India’s Quarterly Economic Outlook); 2. Jubilant Foods; 3. Financials; 4. Technology; 5. Telecom; 6. Financials – Banks (Preview 2QFY20)
MOrning India (10/October/19): 1. Ecoscope (4QCY19: India’s Quarterly Economic Outlook); 2. Jubilant Foods; 3. Financials; 4. Technology; 5. Telecom; 6. Financials – Banks (Preview 2QFY20)
Today’s top research theme
Ecoscope: 4QCY19: India’s Quarterly Economic Outlook
- We have revised down our FY20 growth forecast from earlier 6.5% to 5.7%. We have also lowered our inflation forecast from 4.1% to 3.9% and reduced our current account deficit (CAD) forecast to 1.8% of GDP. Indian Rupee (INR) is also expected to weaken further against the US Dollar (USD) this year. Weak growth and subdued inflation have allowed the RBI to frontload monetary easing, which, we believe is largely over.
- Further, although the recent corporate tax reform is not expected to lead to significant revenue losses for the Central government, the weak economy will lead to tax shortfall, which will only be partly offset by higher-than-expected non-tax receipts. Accordingly, there is negligible fiscal space to stimulate the economy.
Piping hot news
MF assets dip by ₹97,000 crore in September on corporate redemption
The total assets under management (AUM) of mutual funds registered a dip of nearly 4% in September, primarily due to huge outflows in the liquid category funds on the back of redemptions by corporates to meet the liquidity demand for advance tax payments. As per the Association of Mutual Funds in India (AMFI), the AUM fell to ₹24.51 lakh crore in September from ₹25.48 lakh crore in August. Further, liquid funds, which saw inflows of over ₹91,000 crore in August, recorded outflows of ₹1.58 lakh crore in September.
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