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Team Research

MOSL: Morning India (11/April/17)-1. Ajanta Pharma-2. Alcoholic Beverage; 3. Metals/Steel (Update); 4. Oil & Gas; 5. Metals Weekly

​MOrning India (11/April/17): 1. Ajanta Pharma; 2. Alcoholic Beverage; 3. Metals/Steel (Update); 4. Oil & Gas; 5. Metals Weekly

Today’s top research idea

Ajanta Pharma: Continues to perform well on regulatory front; US business story, anti-malaria base business intact

USFDA inspected AJP’s Dahej facility over April 3-7, 2017 for first time. Zero Form 483 observation post inspection is sentiment positive given its peers facing regulatory hurdles. With Paithan facility almost fully utilized, further filing as well as production is expected from Dahej facility for US market over 2-3 years post product approvals.

We expect institutional anti-malaria sales to be similar to FY16 based on stable funding to Global fund and low probability of re-entry of Ipca in CY17.

AJP maintained its outperformance compared to industry with 12M MAT growth of 14.2% in domestic formulation (DF) market.

We expect 19% CAGR in earnings over FY17-20, led by a 46% and a 20.4% CAGR in US sales and DF sales. We value AJP at 25x FY19E EPS to arrive at a PT of INR2,028. Maintain Buy.

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Motilal Oswal
Motilal Oswal

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