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MOSL: Morning India (13/December/19): 1. Hindustan Unilever (Demand outlook similar to 2QFY20); 2. EcoScope (CPI inflation exceeds expectation; IIP continues declining)

MOrning India (13/December/19): 1. Hindustan Unilever (Demand outlook similar to 2QFY20); 2. EcoScope (CPI inflation exceeds expectation; IIP continues declining)

 

Today’s top research idea

Hindustan Unilever: Demand outlook similar to 2QFY20; Key takeaways from interaction with HUVR management:

  • The demand scenario is similar to last quarter with no major improvement or deterioration. Rural demand has seen slight sequential slowdown.
  • The company doesn't see sharp demand turnaround for another two quarters.
  • Since Oct'19, palm oil prices have started inflating. However, the company believes that it's too early currently to decide on a price increase.
  • Premiumization as a trend is continuing.
  • Given HUVR's best earnings growth visibility in the Indian large-cap consumer space and by far the highest return ratios, we believe that the premium valuations are justified. On a target multiple of 50x Dec'21E EPS, we derive a TP of INR2,378/share. Maintain BUY

Piping hot news

At 11.2%, air pax growth returns to double-digits in November

Domestic air passenger traffic has finally grown in double-digits, clipping at 11.2 percent in November to 12.94 million after growing in single-digit till October, while April saw a degrowth, show the latest DGCA data released on Thursday.

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