EUR 120.00 For Business Accounts Only

MOSL: Morning India (17/April/20): 1. EcoScope (India’s reported fiscal deficit could top 12% of GDP in FY21); 2. TCS; 3. Media; 4. Expert Speak (a. Healthcare; b. Oil & Gas; c. Financials)

Morning India (17/April/20):

Today’s top research idea
EcoScope: India’s reported fiscal deficit could top 12% of GDP in FY21
** So far, India is one among the least compared with the support pledged by other major economies. Our estimates suggest that even if there is no stimulus package, India's reported fiscal deficit target would slip by almost 2% of GDP this year to ~5.6% of GDP due to lower taxes, GDP, and the welfare package.

** However, we strongly believe the government could introduce an fiscal stimulus package to support vulnerable working classes, MSMEs, and the worst-affected industries, all amounting to ~2% of GDP, which would have to be funded by the RBI.

** The centre's fiscal deficit could therefore stand at ~7.6% of GDP. Moreover, states fiscal deficit could reach up to 4.4% of GDP from 2.7% targeted in FY21.

** This implies the combined fiscal deficit could be ~12% of GDP (INR25t) in FY21, highest in at least the past five decades.

Piping hot news
Liquidity boost: Government considers tax refunds to large firms
The government is likely to provide income tax and GST refunds to large companies, to ensure additional liquidity during the Covid-19 crisis induced lockdown. Government officials said the amount is expected to be much higher than the Rs 18,000 crore in refunds being issued to small taxpayers currently.