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Team Research

MOSL: Morning India (19/April/17)-1. Coal India (Upgrade to Buy)-2. TCS-3. Indraprastha Gas; 4. RBI; 5. EcoScope; 6. Gruh Finance

​MOrning India (19/April/17): 1. Coal India (Upgrade to Buy); 2. TCS; 3. Indraprastha Gas; 4. RBI; 5. EcoScope; 6. Gruh Finance

Today’s top research theme

  • ​Coal India: Volume growth to accelerate; Upgrade to Buy
  • After a modest 1.6% growth in volumes in FY17, we expect growth to accelerate to ~7% in FY18/19E aided by an end to the destocking cycle and import substitution.
  • Despite a 6.9% price hike, FSA NSR was flat in 2Q/3Q FY17 suggesting impact of grade slippage is already behind. The recent re-garding of coal mines is primarily a formalization of the grade adjustments, in our view.
  • Average NSR is expected to increase by 2.8% in FY18E on higher e-auction coal prices, even as there are no further price hikes. We expect 18% employee wage hike. However, cost of mining will still decline on operating leverage.
  • We expect 21% adj. EBITDA, 15% EPS CAGR over FY17-19E. Upgrade to Buy with TP of INR335/sh on strong earnings growth and attractive dividend yield.

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Motilal Oswal
Motilal Oswal

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Team Research

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