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Team Research

MOSL: Morning India (19/July/18): 1. UltraTech Cement; 2. Ashok Leyland; 3. Mindtree; 4. NIIT Tech; 5. H T Media; 6. Healthcare Monthly

MOrning India (19/July/18): 1. UltraTech Cement; 2. Ashok Leyland; 3. Mindtree; 4. NIIT Tech; 5. H T Media; 6. Healthcare Monthly

 

Today’s top research idea

Ashok Leyland: Above estimate; Regulatory change clouds strong operating performance

  • AL's revenues grew 46.8% YoY (-28.8% QoQ) to INR62.5b (est. of INR63.2b), driven by 47% YoY growth in volumes.
  • Gross margin of 30.4% (+230bp QoQ, -50bp YoY) exceeded our estimate of 28.2%, led by full benefits of cumulative price hikes of ~5% over Jan-Apr'18 and improved mix. Adj. PAT grew 3.2x YoY to INR3.8b (est. of INR3.3b).
  • It expects limited impact of increase in rated load capacity due to a) prevalence of overloading and 50-60% of the industry volumes (in form of tippers, oil tankers, cement bulkers, vehicle carriers, ICVs etc) will not benefit from this.
  • M&HCV industry is likely to grow 8-10% in FY19 (v/s prior expectation of 10-12%).
  • While this will lead to near-term weakness in volumes, clarity on this will determine severity of impact on FY19 volumes.

Piping hot news

Rain deficit down to 3% despite sustained lag in the East

  • Rainfall for the country as a whole so far (June 1 to July 18) stands reduced to three per cent, with its ongoing enhanced phase delivering a token surplus in Saurashtra and Kutch and the State of Gujarat. The situation in Saurashtra and Kutch had deteriorated fast with the deficit ballooning to 77 per cent just more than a week ago. The turnaround has been dramatic after the monsoon woke up from a weak phase for a third time during the season.
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