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Team Research

MOSL: Morning India (24/November/17): 1. Bajaj Auto (Back on recovery path)- 2. Bata India (Premiumization to support margin expansion)- 3. Monsanto India (Results below estimates)

​MOrning India (24/November/17): 1. Bajaj Auto (Back on recovery path); 2. Bata India (Premiumization to support margin expansion); 3. Monsanto India (Results below estimates)

Today’s top research idea

  • Bajaj Auto: Back on recovery path; Volume growth coupled with improving mix to drive margin expansion
  • Domestic 3W: Strong medium-term visibility as regulatory changes in key states (where BJAUT enjoys over 90% share) are opening-up incremental opportunity of ~142k passenger 3W (v/s 240k sales in FY17).
  • Exports: Stability in key markets, ramp-up in new markets drive recovery, exports grew by 9.4% YTDFY18, avg. volumes of 135.3k/month (v/s avg 117.6k/month in FY17).
  • Domestic motorcycle: Recovery driven by plugging portfolio gaps, recent launch of ES variants in Economy and Pulsar 160NS in Premium.
  • KTM/Husqvarna contract manufacturing volumes could multiply by 3x in a few years, Triumph would enable entry in mid-capacity cruiser segment (250-750cc).
  • Improvement in market/ product mix could lead to EBITDA margin expansion of ~340bp to 22% by FY19 (v/s est. of 20.6%).
  • Broad-based recovery to drive ~16% EPS CAGR over FY17-20. Buy with TP of ~INR4,197.

Piping hot news

President clears stricter version of Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code

  • President Ram Nath Kovind gave his assent to an ordinance amending the Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code (IBC) on Thursday, barring errant promoters of defaulting companies from regaining control of their assets being sold under the bankruptcy process.


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Motilal Oswal
Motilal Oswal

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