Morning India (25/October/21): Morning India (25/October/21):
Today’s top research ideaICICI Bank: Strong show continues- ICICIBC reported a strong 2QFY22, led by healthy NII growth (11bp NIM expansion), strong fee income trends, and controlled provisions and is progressing swiftly towards earnings normalization. Business growth has picked up sharply, with domestic loans growing 4% QoQ, led by Business Banking (12%), Retail loans (5%) and SME (11%).- Fresh slippages declined to INR55.8b (2.9% annualized) which along with higher recoveries and upgrades resulted in improvement in asset quality, with NNPA ratio (less than 100bp) at the lowest level since Dec'14. PCR improved to 80.3% - the highest in the industry. Restructured loans rose to INR96.8b (1.3% of loans).- ICICIBC holds COVID-19 related provisions of INR64.25b (0.8% of loans), which gives us comfort on stable credit cost trends. We increase our estimates for FY22/FY23 by 5%/2.5% and project RoA/RoE of 2%/16.6% by FY24E. ICICIBC remains our top pick in the sector with a TP of INR1,000 (2.8x Sep'23E ABV for the bank).
Piping hot newsLending caps on NBFCs may offer big opportunities to small playersNew lending caps on NBFCs against funding initial share sales may throw up big opportunities for small players in last-mile financing. Many smaller NBFCs are likely to enter the estimated Rs 80,000-crore short-term funding market, hitherto the preserve of large entities such as Bajaj Finance, IIFL, and JM Financial.
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