MOSL: Morning India (29/Mar/17)-1. India Strategy (Tale of two 9k’s)-2. Hindustan Unilever (Overall performance improving)
​MOrning India (29/Mar/17): 1. India Strategy (Tale of two 9k’s); 2. Hindustan Unilever (Overall performance improving)
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Today’s top research theme
India Strategy: Tale of two 9k’s (March 2015 and March 2017); Circle complete, will the Nifty traverse to a higher orbit?
- ​As Nifty reached 9k again after two years, we took a detour and tried to compare underlying valuations, earnings growth prospects, institutional flows and broader macro-economic context
- Valuations for the Nifty based on both one-year forward earnings and on trailing earnings are rich but at similar levels to March 2015.
- Nifty’s earnings performance has been flat over the last three years. However, going forward, we are estimating healthy 21% earnings CAGR, aided by a low base of 2HFY17 and a recovery in Metals, PSU Banks and Oil & Gas.
- Over the last three years, earnings expectations at the start of the year have ended in disappointment towards the end of the year, which puts earnings delivery (23% EPS growth in FY18) as the key risk for current valuations (18.1x FY18E EPS).
Piping hot news
Aadhaar can be made compulsory for bank accounts, filing IT returns: SC
The Supreme Court today made it clear that Aadhaar cards cannot be made mandatory by the government for extending benefits of social welfare schemes. However it said the government cannot be barred from seeking these cards, which are issued by UIDAI, for "non-benefit" purposes like filing of IT returns and opening of accounts
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