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MOSL: Morning India (2/August/18): 1. India Strategy (1QFY19 interim earnings review); 2. Ecoscope; 3. Automobile; 4. Dabur India; 5. Pidilite Inds; 6. Emami; 7. Exide Inds; 8. Castrol India

MOrning India (2/August/18): 1. India Strategy (1QFY19 interim earnings review); 2. Ecoscope; 3. Automobile; 4. Dabur India; 5. Pidilite Inds; 6. Emami; 7. Exide Inds; 8. Castrol India

 

Today’s top research theme

India Strategy: 1QFY19 interim earnings review; Mixed bag; ICICI Bank and Tata Motors drag and drive 3.6% Nifty EPS cut; Autos disappoint across the board

• The 1QFY19 earnings season has so far been mixed with aggregates impacted, as has been the case for last few quarters now, by Corporate Banks and TTMT.
• For the MOSL Universe, sales, EBITDA and PAT grew 21.5%, 19.8% and 9.4% YoY, as against expectations of 19.6%, 20.2% and 15.2%, respectively. Excluding Private Corporate Banks, sales, EBITDA and PAT grew 21.7%, 21.0% and 13.8% v/s expectations of 19.8%, 21.2% and 17.3%, respectively.
• Sales, EBITDA and PAT for the 32 Nifty companies have grown at 22.1%, 20.7% and 2.5%, as against expectations of 19.7%, 20.5% and 12.7%, respectively. Excluding PSU Banks and Corporate-focused Private Banks, Nifty sales, EBITDA and PAT have grown 22.4%, 22.0% and 8.1% v/s expectations of 20.0%, 21.6% and 14.8%, respectively.
• Our Nifty EPS estimates for FY19 have been cut by 3.6% to INR559 from INR580, driven by Tata Motors and ICICI, which account for 70% of the EPS cut. Our estimates for FY20 are largely stable at INR690/INR694 (preview). We are building in Nifty EPS growth of 22%/24% for FY19/20.