EUR 120.00 For Business Accounts Only

MOSL: Morning India (2/March/20): 1. EcoScope (a. Real GDP growth weakens in 3QFY20; b. GST collection up 8.3% YoY in Feb’20); 2. Automobiles (Feb Volumes); 3. Emami; 4. Utilities

MOrning India (2/March/20):  1. EcoScope (a. Real GDP growth weakens in 3QFY20; b. GST collection up 8.3% YoY in Feb’20); 2. Automobiles (Feb Volumes); 3. Emami; 4. Utilities

 

Today’s top research idea

Ecoscope: Real GDP growth weakens in 3QFY20

• Real GVA/GDP grew 4.5%/4.7% YoY in 3QFY20, higher than our estimate. While the CSO revised GDP/GVA growth to 5.6%/5.4% from 5.0%/4.9% for 1QFY20, the numbers for 2QFY20 were revised upward to 5.1%/4.8% from 4.5%/4.3%.
• This means that while majority of market participants were expecting an improvement in GDP growth in 3QFY20, revisions actually imply that growth has fallen, exactly in line with our expectation.
• While weakness in real GDP growth was entirely led by investments, that in GVA growth was driven by slump in industrial activity.
• Details suggest that fiscal spending have been the major driver of growth all this while. However, we expect fiscal spending to taper off in 4QFY20 leading to an even lower growth of ~4.5% in 4QFY20.

Piping hot news

GST collection crosses ₹1 lakh cr mark for fourth consecutive month in Feb

• The government has collected ₹1.05 lakh crore as GST revenue in February, up 8% over the same month last year. This is the fourth consecutive month when the government mopped up GST collection above ₹1 lakh crore mark. The collection from Goods and Services Tax (GST) in February was, however, lower than the ₹1.10 lakh crore collected in January 2020.