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Team Research

MOSL: Morning India (30/April/18): 1. Reliance Industries; 2. Maruti Suzuki; 3. Coal India; 4. Shree Cement; 5. UPL; 6. Biocon; 7. Shriram Trans. Fin.; 8. Idea Cellular

MOrning India (30/April/18): 1. Reliance Industries; 2. Maruti Suzuki; 3. Coal India; 4. Shree Cement; 5. UPL; 6. Biocon; 7. Shriram Trans. Fin.; 8. Idea Cellular

 

Today’s top research idea

Reliance Industries: Petchem drives standalone profitability; RJio ARPU declines

  • Reliance Industries' (RIL) 4QFY18 standalone EBITDA increased 19% YoY (-2% QoQ) to INR134b, below our estimate of INR149b, due to marginally lower throughput of 16.7mmt (our estimate: 17.8mmt). GRM of USD11.0/bbl was also below our estimate of USD11.4/bbl. PAT rose 7% YoY (+3% QoQ) to INR87b, benefiting from higher other income of INR26b (our estimate: INR17b) and lower depreciation of INR27b (our estimate: INR33b).
  • RJio's revenue grew by a meager 4% QoQ (v/s 12% growth in 3QFY18) to INR71.3b, mainly due to a sharp decline in APRU, partly offset by an increase in subscribers. EBITDA increased 3% QoQ to INR26.9b, with the margin contracting 40bp QoQ to 37.8% as a result of a 20% QoQ rise in spectrum and normalization of license fee at 11% of revenues. PAT remained flat QoQ at INR5.1b. Renewed focus on competition in the form of downward revisions in price plans (during Jan-18) led to an 11% QoQ fall in ARPU to INR137. On FY20E basis, the stock trades at 13.3x consolidated EPS of INR75 and EV/EBITDA of 8.5x. Our SOTP-based fair value stands at INR1,150. Maintain Buy.

Piping hot news

State Bank of India plans recast of stressed power assets

  • State Bank of India (SBI) is preparing a major debt restructuring and takeover plan for stressed power assets, to improve valuations and attract new owners with incentives and a quick resolution process.
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