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Team Research

MOSL: Morning India (30/October/18)-1. BPCL-2. Automobiles-3. India Strategy (Contrarian Investing)-4. Colgate-5. LIC Housing-6. GRUH Finance-7. Tata Power-8. Coromandel Intl-9. PI Industries-10. Solar Industri

MOrning India (30/October/18): 1. BPCL; 2. Automobiles; 3. India Strategy (Contrarian Investing); 4. Colgate; 5. LIC Housing; 6. GRUH Finance; 7. Tata Power; 8. Coromandel Intl; 9. PI Industries; 10. Solar Industries; 11. Union Bank of India; 12. Granules India

 

Today’s top research idea

BPCL: Adj. EBITDA below estimate; core GRM at USD3.3/bbl

  • BPCL reported EBITDA of INR33.5b in 2QFY19. However, excluding inventory gain of INR14.4b, core EBITDA stood at INR19.1b (-34% YoY, +1% QoQ), lower than our estimate of INR25.4b, primarily due to lower-than-expected core GRM and higher-than-expected opex. Forex loss stood at INR9.3b v/s INR588m in 2QFY18 and INR7.1b in 1QFY19. PAT declined 48% YoY (-47% QoQ) to INR12.2b (our estimate: INR16.5b).
  • We value the company at 1.7x (unchanged) FY20E PBV to arrive at a TP of INR397. Reiterate Buy.
  • Key risk would be sharing of subsidy burden on LPG/kero and inability to pass on increased cost in auto fuels.

Piping hot news

SC bans 15-yr-old petrol, 10-yr-old diesel vehicles in NCR due to pollution

  • The Supreme Court on Monday prohibited the plying of 15-year-old petrol and 10-year-old diesel vehicles in the national capital region and directed the transport departments concerned to announce that such vehicles would be impounded if found plying. Terming as “very critical” and “horrible” the prevailing pollution situation in Delhi-NCR region, the apex court directed that a list of 15-year-old petrol and 10-year-old diesel vehicles be published on the web site of Central Pollution Control Board (CPCB) and transport department.
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