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Team Research

MOSL: Morning India (4/January/18)- 1. ICICI Bank; 2. Technology (3QFY18 Preview); 3. Oil & Gas; 4. Economy

MOrning India (4/January/18): 1. ICICI Bank; 2. Technology (3QFY18 Preview); 3. Oil & Gas; 4. Economy

Today’s top research idea

  • ICICI Bank: Capex recovery still sometime away; Retail growth holding well
  • Credit demand from corporates remains muted and the management is not seeing any signs of capex revival. Resolution of NCLT referred cases would give more clarity on capex pickup and asset quality outlook.
  • ICICIBC is open to evaluating opportunities to unlock value in its subsidiaries and will eventually look to retain majority stake in life/general insurance subsidiaries. It is not looking to reduce stake in AMC business, where it holds 51%.
  • While credit cost is likely to stay elevated in the near term (NPL ageing + requirement toward the second list), we expect it to moderate from FY19, enabling ICICIBC to deliver ~12% RoE by FY20E (~8% currently). We reiterate Buy with an SOTP-based target price of INR370.

Piping hot news

Modi govt signs off on radical makeover for ports sector

  • In a bid to boost port construction in the country, the Union government is sweetening the terms, including a change in the revenue model and the creation of a dispute-resolution mechanism. On Wednesday, the Union cabinet approved a new model concession agreement (MCA) for private public partnership (PPP) port projects. This will, among other things, permit easier exits for promoters.​


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