​MOrning India (5/April/17): 1. Technology (4QFY17 Preview); 2. Capital Goods
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Technology 4QFY17 preview: Can growth recover next fiscal? Amid some H-1B reprieve and BFSI hopes, INR appreciates
The usual seasonality of the fourth quarter, compounded with (a) sporadic citation of concerns around budget and decision-making delays, and (b) problems in some key accounts, keeps us from building any recovery in growth momentum in 4Q or in the immediate future.
Yet, there are a few potential positives to note - overall positive messaging especially by tier-I IT, likely postponement of any developments around H-1B visas, and traction in change-the-business side of the business. These may aid gradual improvement in growth through the course of FY18 rather than a sudden pick-up in growth.
We are modeling (on organic basis) 0-2% QoQ CC growth across our coverage universe. Contribution from acquisitions should help HCLT inch this to 3.4% QoQ CC. Among tier-I, last quarter, TCS cited expectation of sustained momentum in 4Q, driving our estimate of 2% QoQ CC; for INFO, we expect growth to be at the midpoint of its guided band (1% QoQ CC).
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