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MOSL: Morning India (5/October/21): 1. India Strategy – The Eagle Eye (Steady as she goes; Macro and Micro recovery strengthens); 2. EcoScope (What would the inclusion in global bond indices mean for the Indian

MOrning India (5/October/21): 1. India Strategy – The Eagle Eye (Steady as she goes; Macro and Micro recovery strengthens); 2. EcoScope (What would the inclusion in global bond indices mean for the Indian economy?)

 

Today’s top research theme

India Strategy - The Eagle Eye: Steady as she goes; Macro and Micro recovery strengthens

In this version of 'The Eagle Eye', we highlight (a) Return of old economy stocks- utilities, O&G, coal etc. showing outperformance in Sep'21 b) Sensex's swift climb from 50K to 60K in 158 trading days, c) The divergence in 3 year rolling returns in the NSE 500 constituents, d) Pick-up in the real estate economy after eons and e) India's current account surplus in 1QFY22 and high frequency indicators suggesting sharp macro-economic recovery.

• India continues to outperform the global and EM peers. Sensex hit a milestone of 60K in Sep'21 and took just 158 days to move from 50K to 60K.
• Institutional turnover reached an all-time high of INR7.2t in Sep'21.
• Nifty created new all-time highs on 48 trading days in CY21. With three months still to go, it has a good shot at crossing the previous record of CY14 when it hit new highs on 55 days in a calendar year.
• 145 companies among the NSE-500 companies have seen a three-year CAGR returns of >30%, while 76 companies have declined over this period.
• Macro Trends- Government gross receipts as % of BE at multi-year high while fiscal deficit is at multi-year lows. This augurs well for fiscal spending in 2HFY22 which in-turn can help sustain the recovery.
• Active COVID-19 cases declined below 282k in Sep'21, with the vaccination pace picking up to 7.9m/day in Sep'21 v/s 6.1m/day in Aug'21