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MOSL: MOrning India (7/October/22): 1. Bulls & Bears (Market turns volatile amidst fear of monetary policy tightening; FIIs turn sellers); 2. Technology; 3. Dabur; 4. Titan; 5. Macrotech Developers; 6. Equit

MOrning India (7/October/22): 1. Bulls & Bears (Market turns volatile amidst fear of monetary policy tightening; FIIs turn sellers); 2. Technology; 3. Dabur; 4. Titan; 5. Macrotech Developers; 6. Equitas Holdings

Today’s top research theme

Bulls & Bears: Market turns volatile amidst fear of monetary policy tightening; FIIs turn sellers

• The Nifty's two-month winning streak ended in Sep'22. The elevated volatility was triggered by global and macro headwinds. The US Fed raised interest rates by 75bp driving a broader risk-off in the global equity markets with Dollar index up 17% YTD'CY22. Indian currency depreciated 2.3% in Sep'22 even as Forex reserves are down by USD96b in YTD'CY22.  The RBI hiked its key policy rate (repo) by 50bp to 5.9% on 30th Sep'22 and revised GDP growth down to 7% v/s 7.2% earlier.
• All major economies end lower in Sep'22: Barring Brazil (flat MoM), Sep'22 saw all key global markets such as Russia (-17%), Korea (-13%), MSCI EM (-12%), Taiwan (-11%), the US (-9%), Japan (-8%), China (-6%), the UK (-5%), India (-4%), and Indonesia (-2%) close lower in local currency terms. Over the last 12 months, the MSCI India index (-2%) has outperformed the MSCI EM index (-30%).
• FIIs reported outflows of USD1.6b in Sep'22 after recording the highest inflows in Aug'22 (since Dec'20). Net outflows stood at USD22.6b YTD. DIIs turn buyers of USD1.7b in Sep'22 after recording outflows in Aug'22. Net inflows stood at USD28.9b YTD.
• With the recent correction, the Nifty now trades at 20.4x FY23E EPS, above its LPA, and offers limited near-term upside in our view. The upside from hereon will be a function of stability in global and local macros, and continued earnings delivery v/s our expectations.

• Piping hot news

  Ujjivan Small Finance Bank records 44pc jump in loan book

  Ujjivan Small Finance Bank recorded a 44 per cent growth in gross loan book at Rs 20,938 crore at the end of September 2022 driven by micro, affordable housing and individual borrowings. The bank said advances are up 22 per cent from Rs 14,514 crore as of September 2021 on the back of sustained growth in disbursement which grew by 56 per cent year on year to Rs 4,867 crore. "The bank crossed the Rs 20,000 crore milestone in both advances and deposits showing robust growth," Ujjivan SFB said in a regulatory filing on Thursday.