MOSL: POWER MONTHLY (Utilities)-Sep 2017 - Port-based merchant plants benefit from coal shortage

​POWER MONTHLY (Utilities): Sep 2017 - Port-based merchant plants benefit from coal shortage; Northern region drives power demand in August

• Conventional generation growth moderates to 4.6% in September
  
• Conventional electricity generation increased 4.6% YoY in September 2017, slowing from 7.9% growth in August. Hydro and nuclear generation remained weak, but the growth run-rate was better MoM. Coal generation grew faster at 6.6% YoY (17% in August).
  
• State-owned plants are driving growth, as generation grew 12% YoY (+20% in August). Generation was flat YoY at center-owned plants, but up ~3% YoY at private-owned plants.
  
• Including renewable energy (reported with one-month lag), generation grew 8.4% YoY in August 2017 and 6.2% YoY in 5MFY18. RE had ~31% share of incremental generation and represented 8.9% of India's generation in 5MFY18.
  
• Capacity addition partly offset by retirement and conversion to CPP
  
• Only 30MW capacity was commissioned in August 2017. Commissioning stood at ~3.9GW in 5MFY18, as against ~2GW in the year-ago period.
  
• However, 2.6GW of capacity was either retired (1.3GW) or converted to CPP (1.3GW), resulting in net utility-based capacity addition of ~1.3GW in 5MFY18.
  
• Conventional capacity PLF was flat YoY at 52% in September 2017 and up ~60bp YoY to 51% for 6MFY18. Coal-based PLF was up by 177bp YoY to 57.5% in September 2017 and by 135bp YoY to 56.8% for 6MFY18.