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MOSL: TELECOM-Industry growth still elusive; RJio gains 180bp market share, takes no 2 position

TELECOM: Industry growth still elusive; RJio gains 180bp market share, takes no 2 position

 

• The Telecom Regulatory Authority of India (TRAI) has released its fourth-quarter revenue report, which depicts a downtrend in the country's telecom industry (AGR* down 2% to INR316b).
• RJio delivered 4% QoQ growth in AGR, capturing the number-two position (from Bharti) with a 31.6% market share. Vodafone-Idea (VIL) maintained its number one position with flat sequential growth and a 32.1% market share.
• Bharti's market share contracted steeply by 290bp QoQ to 27.2%. Its AGR declined by 11% QoQ, which is in stark contrast to that reported by the company (adjusted revenue up 6% QoQ after netting off IUC) in its fourth-quarter results. There is anomaly in the AGR trend in 6-7 circles.
• RJio gained market share in 19/22 circles and is now the leader in 16/22 circles (v/s 4 in 3QFY19). Bharti lost market share in 13 circles and is now the leader in only one circle - Karnataka (v/s 9 in 3Q). Vodafone Idea is the leader in five circles (v/s 9 in 3Q).
• In our view, industry ARPU downtrading is now largely behind as there is limited price differential among the top three players. However, once all the three players come at par in terms of network capability, the subscriber churn will likely reduce, shifting the focus again to ARPU accretion.