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MOSL: ORIENT CEMENT-Hit by weak realizations, high costs; cutting estimates by 6-7%

ORIENT CEMENT: Hit by weak realizations, high costs; cutting estimates by 6-7%

(ORCMNT IN, Mkt Cap USD0.3b, CMP INR89, TP INR105, 18% Upside, Buy)

 

• Volumes, realizations disappoint: ORCMNT's volumes fell 16% YoY to 1.24mt in 2QFY20. Realizations increased 9% YoY but were down 9% QoQ to INR4,150/t due to weak pricing in the markets of south and Maharashtra. Revenue fell 8% YoY (-25% QoQ) to INR5.1b (our estimate: INR5.8b).
• EBITDA impacted by higher costs: Cost/t rose 4% YoY (+4% QoQ) to INR3,718, higher than our estimate of INR3,554, due to higher freight cost/t (+4% YoY) and other expenses/t (+32% YoY). Freight cost was higher, primarily due to an increase in average lead distance as ORCMNT reached newer markets in south Karnataka. Thus, EBITDA/t stood at INR432/t (+78% YoY, -56% QoQ), resulting in EBITDA of INR536m (+50% YoY; our estimate: INR908m) with the margin at 10.4% (+4.04pp YoY, -11.3pp QoQ). Tax rate was at 28.5% v/s 35% in 2QFY19. ORCMNT incurred a net loss of INR77m (estimate: profit of INR179m) v/s a loss of INR167m in the year-ago period.
• 1HFY20 performance: Sales were flat at INR12b, while EBITDA increased 68% YoY to INR2b. PAT came in at INR482m v/s loss of INR7.4m in 1HFY19. For 2HFY20, sales/EBITDA/PAT growth is estimated at 4%/5%/27% YoY.