MOSL: STATE BANK OF INDIA (Buy)-PPOP conversion to PAT gaining traction; asset quality resilient
(SBIN IN, Mkt Cap USD48.8b, CMP INR407, TP INR600, 47% Upside, Buy)
- SBIN has demonstrated a strong improvement in asset quality, with GNPAs declining by 43% over the past three years, while PCR increased to 68% currently from 40% four years back. Fresh slippages moderated sharply to 1.2% in FY21 (2.5% in 1QFY22), lower v/s many of its private peers.
- AUCA book stood at INR1.72t - higher than the GNPL pool, with recoveries in the 6-11% range. Over the past five years, the bank has recovered ~INR400b from the AUCA book. We expect the recovery trends to continue as the IBC process gains pace after a long pause due to the COVID-19 restrictions.
- SBIN appears well positioned to report strong uptick in earnings, led by moderation in credit cost from FY22. The bank has historically delivered over 15% RoE for 10 years, before the worst phase of the corporate cycle hit earnings to the point that it reported back-to-back losses in FY17/FY18. During FY19-21, SBIN has shown a remarkable improvement in asset quality, reducing net NPLs to 1.8% at present from 5.7% in FY18, while PCR stands comparable to many well-run Private Banks.
- We estimate 14% CAGR in PPOP over FY21-23E (v/s 6% CAGR over FY18-21). Overall PPOP to provision coverage should strengthen to 2.5x by FY23E (v/s an average of 1.3x over FY18-21), while RoE expands sharply to ~15% and reach their decadal highs in FY23E. SBIN remains among our top Buys in the Banking space with a TP of INR600 (1.4x FY23E ABV+INR190 from subsidiaries/JVs).
State Bank of India provides a range of products and services to personal, commercial enterprises, large corporates, public bodies and institutional customers. Its segments include Treasury, which includes the entire investment portfolio and trading in foreign exchange contracts and derivative contracts; Corporate/Wholesale Banking, which comprises the lending activities of Corporate Accounts Group, Mid Corporate Accounts Group and Stressed Assets Management Group; Retail Banking, which comprises branches in National Banking Group, which primarily includes Personal Banking activities, including lending activities to corporate customers having banking relations with branches in the National Banking Group, and Other Banking Business, which includes the operations of all the Non-Banking Subsidiaries/Joint Ventures other than SBI Life Insurance Co. Ltd. and SBI General Insurance Co. Ltd. The Company had approximately 22,500 branches and 58,000 ATMs.
Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd. is a reputed name in Financial Services and Online Trading with group companies providing services such as Private Wealth Management, Retail Broking and Distribution, Institutional Broking, Asset Management, Investment Banking, Private Equity, Commodity Broking, Currency Broking, Principal Strategies & Home Finance.
Motilal Oswal Securities is a group company of Motilal Oswal Financial Service Limited which started as a stock trading company and has blossomed into well diversified firm offering a range of financial products and services. Motilal Oswal has built a reputation as the source for best stock trading company and this has taken a wealth of experience, knowledge and expertise, constantly working in tandem, over the years.
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