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MOSL: TATA MOTORS (Buy)-JLR Apr-17 volumes below est. at 41,923 units (+2% YoY)-Volumes of LR down 8%

​Tata Motors: JLR Apr-17 volumes below est. at 41,923 units (+2% YoY); Volumes of LR down 8%, while those of Jaguar up ~37% driven by F-Pace and XE

(TTMT IN, Mkt Cap USD22.7b, CMP INR435, TP INR619, 43% Upside, Buy)

• ​JLR Apr-17 wholesale volumes grew ~2% YoY (-42% MoM) to 41,923 units, below our estimate of 44,500 units.
  
• Jaguar volumes grew ~37% YoY to 12,608 units (est. of 13,000 units), driven by F-Pace and XE. Also, XF long-wheel base exhibited good growth in China JV.
  
• Land Rover (LR) volumes fell ~8% YoY to 29,315 units (est. of 31,500 units), led by run-out of Defender and Discovery. Also, pre-buying in Mar-17 in the UK region due to higher tax from Apr-17 led to lower demand in April.
  
• JLR Apr-17 retail volumes declined ~2% YoY (-56% MoM) to 40,385 units, led by a decline of ~16% in LR volumes and an increase of 54% in Jaguar volumes.
  
• Jaguar retail volumes were driven by F-Pace (to ~5.2k units) and XE volume growth of ~12% YoY. Jaguar XF volumes too increased ~12% YoY.
  
• LR’s retail volumes declined ~16% YoY, mainly led by a decline in Discovery Sport (-14%), RR Evoque (-15%), RR Sport (-7%), and run-out of old Discovery, partially offset by sales of all-new Discovery and RR (+9%).