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MOSL: TATA MOTORS (Buy)-JLR Jul-17 volumes in-line at 51,425 units (+17% YoY)-JLR volumes up 25%

​Tata Motors: JLR Jul-17 volumes in-line at 51,425 units (+17% YoY); JLR volumes up 25% led by Discovery and RR Velar; Jaguar volumes flat

(TTMT IN, Mkt Cap USD23.0b, CMP INR430, TP INR666, 55% Upside, Buy)

• JLR Jul-17 wholesale volumes grew ~17% YoY (+4% MoM) to 51,425 units (including China JV volumes of 6,805 units; +87% YoY), in line with our estimate of 51,591 units.
  
• Jaguar volumes remained flat at 14,452 units (est. of 15,343 units), led by lower sales of XE.
  
• Land Rover (LR) volumes were up by a strong 25% YoY to 36,973 units (est. of 36,248 units), led by ramp-up of the all-new Discovery in North America and China, and RR Velar introduction in the UK and EU.
  
• JLR Jul-17 retail volumes rose 3.6% YoY (-11% MoM) to 46,074 units, led by an increase in LR volume by ~6%, partly offset by a decline in Jaguar volume of ~2%.
  
• Jaguar retail volumes were driven by F-Pace (to ~5.7k units) and XF volume growth of ~18% YoY. Jaguar XE volumes declined ~22% YoY.
  
• LR’s retail volumes increased ~6% YoY, mainly led by ramp-up in Discovery (+13%) and a continued rise in Discovery Sport (+10%) and RR (+10%). However, RR Sport (-11%) and RR Evoque (-9%) exhibited a decline.
  
• Region-wise, China reported strong volumes at 11.6k units (+34% YoY), including China JV volumes at 6,673 units. Growth in China is reflecting the introduction of the long wheel base Jaguar XFL, as well as strong sales of F-PACE, Discovery Sport, Range Rover Sport and Evoque. On the other hand, retail sales were down in the UK (by 1%), North America (~3%), EU (~6%) and Rest of world (~6% YoY).