Report
John Zolidis

The Restaurant Recession is Over

In this report we discuss current trends in the restaurant industry and implications for stock price performance.  In particular we look at sales trends, which have been accelerating.  We also analyze restaurant level margin trends for each of the 15 names we follow closely in the group.  We conclude by picking whih restaurant names we believe still have upside and those where we would still be cautious. 

Underlyings
BJ's Restaurants Inc.

BJ's Restaurants operates in the casual dining segment of the restaurant industry. The company's restaurants feature a number of menu offerings including: slow roasted entrees, such as, prime rib; EnLIGHTened Entrees? such as its Cherry Chipotle Glazed Salmon; its deep-dish pizza; the Pizookie? dessert; and its BJ's proprietary craft beers. The company owns and operates restaurants located in various states, and its proprietary craft beer is produced at various locations, its Temple, TX brewpub locations and by independent third party brewers using its proprietary recipes. The company also produces its proprietary non-alcoholic craft sodas including root beer, ginger beer, cream, orange and black cherry soda.

Brinker International Inc.

Brinker International is engaged in owning, developing, operating and franchising the Chili's? Grill & Bar (Chili's) and Maggiano's Little Italy? (Maggiano's) restaurant brands. Chili's operates in the bar and grill category of casual dining. Chili's menu includes burgers, fajitas, baby back ribs and margaritas. Chili's To Go menu is available online, by calling the restaurant, or through its mobile app. Maggiano's is a casual restaurant brand providing Italian-American cuisine. Dishes are served in both a la carte and family style. The company provides a range of lunch and dinner options, complimented by a wine list and cocktails.

Cheesecake Factory Incorporated

The Cheesecake Factory operates casual dining restaurants. The company operates Company-owned restaurants under: The Cheesecake Factory?, which provides menu including appetizers, pizza, seafood, steaks, chicken, burgers, small plates, pastas, salads, sandwiches and omelettes, and gluten-free items; Grand Lux Cafe?, which provides American dishes and international favorites, including appetizers, pasta, seafood, steaks, chicken, burgers, salads, and desserts; and RockSugar Southeast Asian Kitchen?, which showcases the cuisines of Thailand, Vietnam, Malaysia, Singapore, Indonesia and India. The company also produces desserts for its restaurants, international licensees and third-party bakery customers.

Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc.

Chipotle Mexican Grill together with its subsidiaries operates Chipotle Mexican Grill restaurants, which feature a menu of burritos, burrito bowls (a burrito without the tortilla), tacos, and salads. The company operates Chipotle restaurants throughout the United States, international Chipotle restaurants, and non-Chipotle restaurants. The company uses various herbs, spices and seasonings to prepare its meats and vegetables. The company also serves tortilla chips that seasoned with lime juice and salt, with sides of hand mashed guacamole, salsas, or queso. In addition to sodas, fruit and tea drinks, and organic milk, most of the company's restaurants also provide a selection of beer and margaritas.

Chuy's Holdings Inc.

Chuy's Holdings is a restaurant concept that provides Mexican and Tex Mex inspired food. The company provides the same menu during lunch and dinner, which includes enchiladas, fajitas, rellenos, tacos, burritos, combination platters and daily specials, complemented by a variety of appetizers, soups and salads. Each of the company's restaurants also provide a variety of sauces, including the Hatch Green Chile, Boom-Boom and Creamy Jalapeno sauces. The company also provides a bar in all of its restaurants providing its customers a variety of beverage offerings, featuring a selection of cocktails including its on-the-rocks margaritas made with lime juice and the King's Punch, a rum cocktail.

Cracker Barrel Old Country Store Inc.

Cracker Barrel Old Country Store is principally engaged in the operation and development of the Cracker Barrel Old Country Store? concept. The format of the company's stores consists of a trademarked rustic old country-store design providing a restaurant menu that features home-style country food and a variety of items such as rocking chairs, holiday and seasonal gifts, toys, apparel, cookware and foods. The company's restaurants serve breakfast, lunch and dinner daily. Lunch and dinner items include southern fried chicken, chicken and dumplings, chicken fried chicken, meatloaf, country fried steak, pork chops, fish, steak, roast beef, vegetable plates, sandwiches and a variety of salads.

Dave & Buster's Entertainment Inc.

Dave & Buster's Entertainment is an owner and operator of entertainment and dining venues (stores) that operate under the name Dave & Buster's. The company's concept is to provide its customers the opportunity to Eat Drink Play and Watch all in one location for adults and families, while serving food and beverages. The company's Eat and Drink is provided through a menu of entrees and appetizers and a selection of non-alcoholic and alcoholic beverages. The company's Play and Watch offerings provide an assortment of entertainment attractions centered around playing games and watching live sports and other televised events.

Del Frisco's Restaurant Group

Del Frisco's Restaurant Group is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company develops, owns and operates three restaurants: Del Frisco's Double Eagle Steakhouse (Double Eagle), Del Frisco's Grille (the Grille), and Sullivan's Steakhouse (Sullivan's). Double Eagle's menu includes steaks and a range of other offerings, including lamb, seafood, and side dishes and desserts. The Grille's menu is designed to appeal to business and casual diners and features steaks, various menu items and a selection of wines. Sullivan's is a restaurant with an open kitchen, live music and a bar area.

Del Taco Restaurants Inc.

Del Taco Restaurants is an operator and franchisor of restaurants featuring made-to-order cuisine, including both Mexican inspired and American classic dishes. Majority of the company's Del Taco restaurants are located in the Pacific Southwest. The company serves its customers prepared food with quick service restaurants. The company's menu provides a combination of Mexican-inspired food, such as tacos and burritos, and American classics, such as Double Del cheeseburgers, fries and milkshakes. Additionally, the company's menu features both items such as its Platos plated meals, Epic Burritos?, Handcrafted Ensaladas and Fresca Bowls as well as items on its Buck & Under Menu?.

Red Robin Gourmet Burgers Inc.

Red Robin Gourmet Burgers, together with its subsidiaries, primarily develops, operates, and franchises restaurants in North America and focuses on serving gourmet burgers. The company's menu features its product, a line of Gourmet Burgers. To complement its Gourmet Burgers Co. provides a line of Red's Tavern Double? burgers. In addition to burgers, the company serves an array of other items. These items include a variety of appetizers, salads, soups, seafood, and other entrees. The company also provides a range of single-serving and shareable desserts as well as its Finest milkshakes. The company's beverages include alcoholic and non-alcoholic specialty drinks, cocktails, wine, and a variety of national and craft beers.

Starbucks Corporation

Starbucks is a roaster, marketer and retailer of coffee. The company's segments are: Americas, which is inclusive of the United States, Canada, and Latin America; International, which is inclusive of China, Japan, Asia Pacific, Europe, Middle East, and Africa; and Channel Development. The company's Americas and International segments include both company-operated and licensed stores. The company's Channel Development segment includes roasted whole bean and ground coffees, Seattle's Best Coffee?, Starbucks- and Teavana-branded single-serve products, a variety of ready-to-drink beverages, and other products sold worldwide outside of the company's company-operated and licensed stores.

Texas Roadhouse Inc.

Texas Roadhouse is a restaurant company operating predominately in the casual dining segment. The company operates Texas Roadhouse restaurants and Bubba's 33 restaurants. In addition, the company operates restaurants outside of the casual dining segment. The Texas Roadhouse restaurants provide an assortment of steaks hand-cut on the premises and cooked to order over open grills. In addition to steaks, the company also provides its guests a selection of ribs, seafood, chicken, pork chops, pulled pork and vegetable plates, hamburgers, salads and sandwiches. Bubba's 33 is a sports restaurant. The company's menu features burgers, pizza and wings as well as a variety of appetizers, sandwiches and dinner entrees.

The Habit Restaurants

Habit Restaurants is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company is a casual restaurant concept that focuses on preparing made-to-order char-grilled burgers and sandwiches featuring tri-tip steak, grilled chicken and tuna cooked over an open flame. The company also prepares made-to-order salads and a selection of sides, shakes and malts. The company's burger selection ranges from its Charburger including a choice of mayonnaise, pickles, tomato, lettuce and caramelized onions served on a toasted bun, to its Santa Barbara style Charburger including all the fixings of the Charburger plus cheese and avocado served on grilled sourdough.

ZOES KITCHEN INC

Zoe's Kitchen is a fast-casual restaurant concept serving a menu of Mediterranean-inspired dishes delivered with Southern hospitality. As of Dec 26 2016, the company operated 201 the company-owned restaurants and three franchise restaurants in 20 states across the U.S. The company operates a variety of restaurant formats, including in-line, end-cap and free-standing restaurants located in markets of varying sizes. The company's menu provides meals made from scratch using produce, proteins and other ingredients that are primarily preservative- and additive-free, including its appetizers, soups, salads, and kabobs.

Provider
Quo Vadis Capital
Quo Vadis Capital

Quo Vadis Capital, Inc. is a Registered Investment Advisor, independent equity research boutique and financial and strategic consultancy.  Our focus is on the U.S. consumer market with a specialization in the retail and restaurant sectors.  Quo Vadis provides an investment edge for professional investors using a proprietary forecasting tool that identifies and quantifies near- and long-term upside or downside potential to consensus estimates.  Quo Vadis is based in Paris, France. 

Analysts
John Zolidis

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