We evaluted consensus forecasts for 13 retail companies for 2019. We identify and quantify which companies we believe can beat or will miss current forecasts and summarize our process for this analysis. We also break down ROIC by concept and estimate ROIC for new stores, average stores and the overall companies.
Boot Barn Holdings is a retail chain focused on western and work-related footwear, apparel and accessories. The company's stores, which are freestanding or located in strip centers, feature an assortment of brands and styles, coupled with store associates. The company's product offering is anchored by a selection of western and work boots and an assortment of coordinating apparel and accessories. The company also carries assortments of denim, western shirts, cowboy hats, belts and belt buckles, western-style jewelry and accessories. The company's work assortment includes footwear, outerwear, overalls, denim and shirts for the physically demanding jobs.
Dick's Sporting Goods is an omni-channel sporting goods retailer offering sports equipment, apparel, footwear and accessories. The company also owns and operates Golf Galaxy, Field & Stream and other specialty concept stores, and Dick's Team Sports HQ, an all-in-one youth sports digital platform offering scheduling, communications and live scorekeeping through its GameChanger mobile apps, free league management services, custom uniforms and fan wear, and access to donations and sponsorships. The company provides products to its customers through its retail stores and online. The company is also involved in local communities, sponsoring teams in various sports.
Dollar General is a discount retailer. The company's consumables products includes paper and cleaning products, packaged food, perishables, snacks, health and beauty, pet, and tobacco products. The company's seasonal products include decorations, toys, batteries, small electronics, greeting cards, stationery, prepaid phones and accessories, gardening supplies, hardware, automotive and home office supplies. The company's home products include kitchen supplies, cookware, small appliances, light bulbs, storage containers, frames, candles, craft supplies and kitchen, bed and bath soft goods. The company's apparel includes casual everyday apparel, as well as socks, underwear, disposable diapers, shoes and accessories.
Dollar Tree is an operator of discount variety stores. The company's stores operate under the names of Dollar Tree, Family Dollar and Dollar Tree Canada. The company's segments are: Dollar Tree, which is the operator of discount variety stores providing merchandise at the fixed price point of $1.00; and Family Dollar, which operates general merchandise discount retail stores. The merchandise mix in the company's Dollar Tree stores consists of consumable merchandise, variety merchandise, and seasonal goods. The merchandise mix in the company's Family Dollar stores consists of consumable merchandise, home products, apparel and accessories merchandise, and seasonal and electronics merchandise.
Dollarama is engaged in the business of operating dollar stores in Canada. Co. provides a mix of merchandise, including private label and nationally branded products. Co. also offers a broad range of quality consumer products and general merchandise for everyday use, in addition to seasonal products.
Five Below is a retailer providing a range of merchandise targeted at the tween and teen demographic. The company provides an assortment of products, all priced at $5 and below, including select brands and licensed merchandise across eight worlds: Style, Room, Sports, Tech, Create, Party, Candy and Now. The company operates in states that include Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Delaware, Maryland, Virginia, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, West Virginia, North Carolina, New York, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Ohio, Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Missouri, Georgia, Texas, Tennessee, Maine, Alabama, Kentucky, Kansas, Florida, South Carolina, Mississippi, Louisiana, Wisconsin, Oklahoma, Minnesota, California and Arkansas.
lululemon athletica is a designer, distributor, and retailer of athletic apparel. Co.'s athletic apparel is marketed under the lululemon and ivivva brand names. Co. provides a line of apparel and accessories for women, men and female youth. Co.'s apparel assortment includes items such as pants, shorts, tops, and jackets designed for healthy lifestyle and athletic activities such as yoga, running, training, other sweaty pursuits, and athletic wear for female youth. Co. also provides fitness-related accessories. Co. primarily conducts its business through two channels: company-operated stores and direct to consumer. As of Jan 28 2018, Co. operated 404 stores.
Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings is a holding company. The company and its subsidiaries buys overproduced, overstocked, and closeout merchandise from manufacturers, wholesalers, and other retailers. The company's product offerings include: cooking utensils, dishes, appliances, plastic containers, cutlery, storage and garbage bags, detergents and cleaning supplies; packaged food including coffee, bottled non-carbonated beverages and salty snacks; household goods including bedding and towels; books and stationery; floor coverings including laminate flooring, commercial and residential carpeting, area rugs and floor mats; and electronics, including air conditioners, home electronics and cellular accessories.
Sprouts Farmers Market operates as a healthy grocery store. The company categorizes the varieties of products it sells as perishable and non-perishable. Perishable product categories include produce, meat, seafood, deli, bakery, floral and dairy and dairy alternatives. Non-perishable product categories include grocery, vitamins and supplements, bulk items, frozen foods, beer and wine, and natural health and body care. The company's stores include the following departments: packaged groceries, meat and seafood, deli, vitamins and supplements, dairy and dairy alternatives, bulk items, baked goods, frozen foods, natural health and body care, and beer and wine.
Target provides its customers everyday essentials and merchandise. The company sells an assortment of general merchandise and food. The majority of the company's general merchandise stores provide an edited food assortment, including perishables, dry grocery, dairy, and frozen items. The company's small format stores provide curated general merchandise and food assortments. The company's digital channels include merchandise assortment, including various items found in its stores, along with a complementary assortment. The company also sells merchandise through periodic design and partnerships. The company's owned brands merchandise include: A New Day?, Archer Farms?, Art Class?, Ava & Viv?, Cat & Jack?, and Cloud Island?, among others.
Tractor Supply is a rural lifestyle retailer. The company is focused on supplying the needs of recreational farmers, ranchers and all those who enjoy living the rural lifestyle, as well as tradesmen and small businesses. The company operates retail stores under the names Tractor Supply Company, Del's Feed & Farm Supply, and Petsense and operates websites under the names TractorSupply.com and Petsense.com. The company's selection of merchandise is comprised of the following main product categories: equine, livestock, pet, and small animal products; hardware, truck, towing, and tool products; seasonal products; work/recreational clothing and footwear; and maintenance products for agricultural and rural use.
Ulta Beauty is a beauty retailer that provides cosmetics, fragrance, skin care products, hair care products, and salon services. The company's stores are primarily located in locations such as power centers. The company provides a range of services in all of its stores. The company's stores, website, and mobile applications provides more than 25,000 products from approximately 500 beauty brands across all categories and price points, including its own private label, the Ulta Beauty Collection. The company provides a portfolio across five primary categories: cosmetics; skincare, bath and fragrance; haircare products and styling tools; salon services; and other, which includes nail products and accessories.
Walmart is engaged in global operations of retail, wholesale and other units, as well as eCommerce, located throughout the U.S., Africa, Argentina, Canada, Central America, Chile, China, India, Japan, Mexico and the U.K. The company's operations are conducted in three reportable segments: Walmart U.S., which is a mass merchandiser of consumer products, operating under the Walmart and Walmart Neighborhood Market brands, as well as walmart.com, jet.com and other eCommerce brands; Walmart International, which includes various formats divided into retail, wholesale and other categories; and Sam's Club, which is a membership-only warehouse club that also operates samsclub.com.
Quo Vadis Capital, Inc. is a Registered Investment Advisor, independent equity research boutique and financial and strategic consultancy. Our focus is on the U.S. consumer market with a specialization in the retail and restaurant sectors. Quo Vadis provides an investment edge for professional investors using a proprietary forecasting tool that identifies and quantifies near- and long-term upside or downside potential to consensus estimates. Quo Vadis is based in Paris, France.
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