Aluflexpack 4Q 19 - FY 20 earnings target lives up to our estimate

We have a rather neutral stance on the FY 19 figures and the FY 20 guidance, as they were in line with our assumptions (except for higher non-operating items). Generally, the investment case as it was presented around the IPO appears unchanged.



Adj. EBITDA in line, reported earnings below RCBe: After having already reported FY 19 revenues of EUR 208 mn (+14% yoy, o/w organic ~8%), also adjusted EBITDA of EUR 29.5 mn (FY 18 EUR 21.4 mn), implying a margin of 14.1%, was in line with the guidance (similar to the 14% achieved in 1H) and RCBe of 14.1% and EUR 28.9 mn, respectively. Reported EBITDA of EUR 19.2 mn was below our projection of EUR 23.5 mn as the one-offs were double the amount we had pencilled in. This was mostly due to a higher bonus payment to management by the majority shareholder (EUR 8 mn, which was however injected as contribution in kind). The fire incident at Eliopack had a positive net effect of ca. EUR 1.5 mn. The company reported a net loss of EUR -3.4 mn which fell shy of our net profit forecast of EUR 2 mn. As expected, the company will not pay a dividend. Operating CF of EUR 15.5 mn was about in line with our estimate of EUR 18 mn and having invested EUR 33 mn, FCF was negative at EUR -17.5 mn (RCBe EUR -20 mn). Aluflexpack ended the year with a net cash position of EUR 12 mn (driven by IPO proceeds, RCBe EUR 22 mn).