Macro: COVID-19 Compendium Global Markets Update_04_05_2020

On 24 March we informed you about the then current state of the economy and financial markets in the developed economies. Instead of the traditional "Global Markets Strategy" with a compendium of current analysis results. This with the remark that in these extraordinary times of COVID-19 it is not an economic or financial market crisis per se, but a lockdown/shutdown phase derived from politics, which was still difficult to estimate and therefore requires regular adjustments. Since Easter, we have constantly re-evaluated the situation and adjusted our economic projections in line with the loosening measures implemented by the respective governments. It should be noted that the negative effects of COVID-19 measures are even more pronounced in the first quarter than
originally anticipated. Our estimates for the current second quarter are also more pessimistic than was assumed in mid-March. However, the quarterly trend based on the development of capacity utilization shows a strong catch-up in the second half of 2020. Overall, our GDP estimates for 2020 therefore tend to be significantly lower, but the recovery rates in 2021 are correspondingly higher than in our last issue.

This Research was produced and first published by Raiffeisen Bank International AG which is supervised by the Austrian Financial Market Authority and the National Bank of Austria.