Macro: COVID-19 Economic Update CEE: Driving home for Christmas?

This slide deck gives you an updated overview of restrictions and economic, fiscal and monetary measures in Central, South Eastern and Eastern Europe (CEE) and Austria. The data is collected by Raiffeisen RESEARCH analysts based in CEE countries and in Austria and is biweekly updated.
Recent developments:
-New cases: Some countries, CE in particular seem to have reached their peaks (except HU), however new cases numbers (and often death numbers) remain high. The exceptions in SEE are HR and RS where the new cases continue to rise sharply.In EE BY is also observing a rise in new cases with stabilisation in RU and UA.
-Responses: Signs of improvement allowed to avoid full-lockdown in PL with CE countries now considering timetables of easing restrictions. Still schools remain mostly in online mode, most facilities, gastronomy are closed. In SEE countries impose more restrictions as especially in BG and HR health systems are reaching their capacity limits. More restrictions or recommended measures are applied also in EE. RU already started vaccination.
Monetary and fiscal policy: In line with our long-held but in contrast to the consensus view, NBS cut base rate on 10 Dec by 25bp to 1.00% after several months of staying side-lined. UA introduced a new fiscal package amounting to USD 353 mn aimed at citizens and businesses. BA has announced a new fiscal package without defining its size, and PL announced the sixth amendment to its anti-crisis support shield amounting to PLN 35-40 bn together with the 2nd financial shield. KS also announced further fiscal support to citizens and businesses. The announced agreement on the EU-Budget is key for the postpandemic rebound of many countries.
High frequency indicators: Mobility indicators are clearly lower throughout the whole CEE region reflecting the restrictions gradually reimposed since Sept. Currently the SEE countries are on a downward trajectory, towards the levels of last spring. Meanwhile the CE mobility seemingly has stabilized just above the levels in spring. Economic data for Q3 confirmed solid recovery however Q4 results are broadly expected to deteriorate. Still even in the most hit services sector sentiment remains well above levels from Q2 as indicated by confidence data.