Macro: COVID-19 Economic Update CEE: First signs of improvement in CZ

This slide deck gives you an updated overview of restrictions and economic, fiscal and monetary measures in Central, South Eastern and Eastern Europe (CEE) and Austria. The data is collected by Raiffeisen RESEARCH analysts based in CEE countries and in Austria and is biweekly updated.

Recent developments:
* New cases: In CZ finally some improvement in the development of the pandemic is visible and in SK a stabilisation. It is worth noting that both countries had faced surges in cases first among CEE countries in September and thus reacted faster with restrictions. Meanwhile PL, HU, AT, EE and SEE countries observe further deterioration and new record daily cases.
* Responses: Semi-lockdowns in CZ & SK and mass testing in SK seem to bring effects as observed in the new cases numbers. Meanwhile PL is considering full lockdown while HU tightened restrictions further. Measures are also reimposed in SEE with curfew and time or people limits most often applied. Our measures overview table on slide 12 is thus no longer dominated by green cells. While most restrictions are imposed for 3 weeks to 1 month there is a high probability of their extension.
* High frequency indicators: Mobility indicators are in decline likely reflecting both voluntary isolation but also reimposed restrictions, as well as seasonal effects, throughout CEE. Energy usage continues to hover below but close to the prepandemic baseline. Monthly economic data for September provided some upward surprises but rather mixed results while the situation is likely to deteriorate in October as indicated by the high frequency indicators and given the reimposed restrictions.

This Research was produced and first published by Raiffeisen Bank International AG which is supervised by the Austrian Financial Market Authority and the National Bank of Austria.