Macro: COVID-19 Economic Update CEE: Further deterioration in Central Europe

This slide deck gives you an updated overview of restrictions and economic, fiscal and monetary measures in Central, South Eastern and Eastern Europe (CEE) and Austria. The data is collected by Raiffeisen RESEARCH analysts based in CEE countries and in Austria and is biweekly updated.
Recent developments:
- New cases: Pandemic situation is now deteriorating throughout the whole CEE region albeit at varying pace. The highest increase in new cases continues to be observed in CZ while PL, SK also face a significant (record) rise in cases. In SEE 7-day averages per population are not as high but are increasing dynamically with CR also facing high hospitalization rates (similarly to CE). EE also report dynamic increase in new cases after brief improvement.
- Responses: With CZ, SK already having imposed mini-lockdowns last week, CZ came closer to a lockdown more similar to that in Q2 this week. SK on the other hand aims to contain the pandemic also via testing its whole population. Restrictions are reimposed in other CEE countries (PL, RO, RU, BG, BH) with PL also coming closer to a lockdown, RO considering such actions based on case numbers in recent days.
- Measures & support: Governments already implement or are preparing fiscal support measures, however, this time aimed at selected, most-hit sectors.
- High frequency indicators: Mobility indicators are in decline which may largely be due to weather conditions but as governments reimpose restrictions in Oct this effect should become more visible. Energy usage continues to hover below the prepanedmic baseline. Economic data for Sept provided some upward surprises after weaker Aug however indicators for Oct will most likely show a deterioration, especially in CE given the worsening pandemic.

This Research was produced and first published by Raiffeisen Bank International AG which is supervised by the Austrian Financial Market Authority and the National Bank of Austria.