Macro: COVID-19 Economic Update euro area part 5

The corona crisis and the associated restrictions in economic activity represent a major challenge for the measurement and forecasting of economic data. It is clear that the slump in economic activity is unprecedented in terms of its extent and speed. We were already aware of the historical dimension of the current recession in mid-March. Our assessment of key characteristics of this crisis has also proved to be correct (e.g. comparatively sharp slump in non-cyclical sectors and private consumption), and so we decided to leave our mid-April forecasts unchanged for the time being. Before we revise our figures, it makes sense to wait for the bulk of the real economic data for the second quarter (available by mid-August). However, there is enough new information available that is worth putting at in the context of our forecasts.

This Research was produced and first published by Raiffeisen Bank International AG which is supervised by the Austrian Financial Market Authority and the National Bank of Austria.