Macro: COVID-19 Update Bulgaria: Too early for optimism
The real economic growth of the first quarter, although affected by the COVID-19 pandemic remained, somewhat surprisingly, in positive territory, coming in at 1.2% yoy. This was also due to a positive contribution of net exports, and slightly growing consumption.The more serious blow to the Bulgarian economy shall follow in the second quarter of 2020, with business statistics for this period already showing serious declines.
High-frequency data reveals that Bulgaria is returning back to normal with regards to public life and energy consumption. But it is still too early to assess the impact of COVID-19 completely as the third and fourth quarter are still very unpredictable.
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