Macro: COVID-19 Update Croatia: Tourism or no tourism that is the question
We expect 60-70% loss in the tourism peak season, banking on certain relaxation of travelling restrictions inside EUWe see a strong interest at the European level to allow for controlled tourism in 2020
Our baseline scenario, incl. tourism assumptions mentioned, foresees a GDP drop by around 8% in 2020
Second drastic wave of infections in the next months would kill our baseline scenario, then a double-digit GDP drop could be in the pipeline
This Research was produced and first published by Raiffeisen Bank International AG which is supervised by the Austrian Financial Market Authority and the National Bank of Austria.
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