Macro: Update_COVID19_CEE_OverviewMeasures_12_08_2020
Recent developments:- New cases: Concerns about second wave of pandemic remain, as most CEE countries either reached new record high in new daily cases or remain close to them. AT, HU, CZ, SK while still well below peaks, all observed spike in new cases recently. Further declines in RU and BY. Preliminary declines in HR and RS.
- Responses: No country seems to openly consider broad-based lockdown as observed in March/April while further mild restrictions are being implemented with PL denoting red zones with more restrictions and orange zones with some restrictions. AT support plans targeting the corporate sector.
- High frequency and economic data show rebound for most countries. In CE/SEE Energy usage has decreased (slightly) at the end of July. First Q2 GDP releases included CZ GDP dropping less than expected by 10.7%yoy (better than in DE) while in RS consumer demand seems to recover surprisingly strong with retail sales rising at a double-digit pace yoy. Also July PMIs provided positive signals with PL, HU, DE above 50 points.
- Economic outlook: We revised our GDP forecasts for the euro area for 2020 and 2021 downwards. More revisions may be implemented after the release of G2 GDP figures this Friday, which gives us more information on the extent of the Corona-Slump in the lockdown period.
This Research was produced and first published by Raiffeisen Bank International AG which is supervised by the Austrian Financial Market Authority and the National Bank of Austria.
The Institutional Equity Research team of Raiffeisen Bank International AG covers 85 stocks from Austria, Central & Eastern Europe with sell-side research and thus levers our local broker status with excellent company relationships. For corporates in Austria, CEE and Western Europe, we offer co-sponsored research, which includes research coverage and marketing activities to investors. Additionally, through our Spotlight Research product we also shed light on leading European small and micro-caps, seeking greater visibility with investors.
The Institutional Equity Research team consists of roughly 15 analysts, both in Vienna and the CEE countries. Our analysts provide long-standing sector expertise in tandem with profound local market know how and a sectoral approach across the entire region.
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