Macro: Update_COVID19_CEE_OverviewMeasures_15_07_2020

This slide deck gives you an updated overview of restrictions and economic, fiscal and monetary measures in Central, South Eastern and Eastern Europe (CEE), Austria, Germany and the USA. The data is collected by Raiffeisen RESEARCH analysts based in CEE countries and in Austria and is continuously updated. Recent developments: * New cases: In CE Hungary remains the only country with „contained status. In EE the slow downward trend in new daily cases continues while SEE observed new record highs in the last days. * Easing restrictions: In order to prevent a surge in cases in HU the government implemented traffic light rules for inbound travel with restrictions for countries included in red or orange list. In RU 14-day isolation for travellers will no longer be required while in UA nationwide quarantine is planned also for August. In SEE the surge in daily cases resulted in a return to some restriction measures (either countrywide or regional), most including mandatory masks indoors, limits on gatherings and hours of opening restaurants/bars. * Economic data shows low-point in April and rebound in May; industrial output recovered in May especially in PL and CZ while the decline deepened in some countries (BH, HR, RU). Retail sales rebound was observed in most countries in May with RS, AT and DE recording even an increase yoy. Unemployment rates still post limited increase in many countries owing to job retention schemes in place. Officials are adjusting their 2020 assumptions: in CZ annual budget deficit has been raised from CZK 300 to 500 bn while Polish MPC revised its GDP estimate well below ours (-5.7% vs -4.5% RBI).

This Research was produced and first published by Raiffeisen Bank International AG which is supervised by the Austrian Financial Market Authority and the National Bank of Austria.