MOL raised to BUY, TP HUF 3,300 - Stronger earnings generation despite HUF 500 bn windfall tax
-Despite governments decision to overtax MOLs windfall profits, the company should strongly benefit from the import of cheaper crude from Russia, generating 2x higher refining EBITDA in 2022e-Higher oil and gas prices should offset the impact of lower oil and gas output resulted from the UK assets divestments and natural decline
-Divestments of upstream assets in the UK to generate >USD 600 mn positive one-offs in 2022e (i.e. reduction of field abandonment provisions, transaction gains)
-We expect the management to revise upwards its 2022e EBITDA guidance, which currently stands at USD 2.8 bn vs market consensus of ca. USD 4.0 bn
Magyar Olaj-Es Gazipari is an integrated oil and gas enterprise based in Hungary and active in central and eastern Europe. Co.'s core activities include: exploration and production of crude oil, natural gas and gas products; refining, transportation, storage and distribution of crude oil products in both retail and wholesale markets; importation, transportation, storage and wholesale trading of natural gas and other gas products; and the production and sale of olefins and polyolefins. TVK, the petrochemical affiliate of Co., is an olefin and polyolefin producer in Hungary.
The Institutional Equity Research team of Raiffeisen Bank International AG covers 85 stocks from Austria, Central & Eastern Europe with sell-side research and thus levers our local broker status with excellent company relationships. For corporates in Austria, CEE and Western Europe, we offer co-sponsored research, which includes research coverage and marketing activities to investors. Additionally, through our Spotlight Research product we also shed light on leading European small and micro-caps, seeking greater visibility with investors.
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