MOL cut to HOLD, TP HUF 2,600 - Long-term transformation comes at a high capex tag
MOL aims at accelerating the fuel-to-chemicals transformation by planning to invest USD 2.5 bn until 2025, which should however lower the FCF generation of the downstream segmentThe 2021-25 EBITDA should fully cover both stay-in-business and growth capex, as well as the base DPS of HUF 100
With guided earnings being virtually line with our and consensus estimates, we see no short-term triggers that would justify a premium to MOLs 2015-19 average EV/EBITDA of 4.3x
Magyar Olaj-Es Gazipari is an integrated oil and gas enterprise based in Hungary and active in central and eastern Europe. Co.'s core activities include: exploration and production of crude oil, natural gas and gas products; refining, transportation, storage and distribution of crude oil products in both retail and wholesale markets; importation, transportation, storage and wholesale trading of natural gas and other gas products; and the production and sale of olefins and polyolefins. TVK, the petrochemical affiliate of Co., is an olefin and polyolefin producer in Hungary.
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