Report

NLB Group confirmed at BUY, TP EUR 65 - From Belgrade with love

We are significantly raising our TP from EUR 48 to EUR 65 on the wings of (1) inclusion of Serbian Komercijalna Banka (2) lower risk costs and (3) lifting the mid-term DPS estimates by >100% compared to our last report (it goes without saying that the latter hinges on the ECBs guidance beyond Q4 2021). Given the 30% upside, we reiterate our BUY call for NLB Group.

NLB trades at discount to peers especially at the long end of forecast period due to 30% EPS accretion from KB and the expected synergies extraction

We have slightly increased COE to account for the changing risk profile triggered by the relocation of earnings and assets towards Serbian market and to reflect the eventual downside risks during the integration process

Our positively revised earnings estimates as well as the assumed cumulative dividends are clearly below the ambitious management guidance by 2023
Underlying
Nova Ljubljanska Banka DD Ljubljana

NLB dd is a Slovenia-based company, which is primarily involved in the financial services industry. The Company operates as a parent company of NLB Group and has a number of subsidiaries, such as NLB Banka Banja Luka, NLB Banka Sarajevo, NLB Banka Prishtina, NLB Nov penziski fond Skopje, NLB Tutunska Banka Skopje, NLB Bank Podgorica, Bankart, Nova ljubljanska banka, NLB Skladi, NLB Vita, NLB Banka Belgrade, NLB Srbija Beograd, NLB Leasing Sarajevo, Prvi Paktor Sarajevo, NLB Leasing Sofia, Optima Leasing Zagred, among others. The Company operates in such countries, as Slovenia, Bosnia and herzegovina, Kosovo, Macedonia, Montenegro, Serbia, Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Germany, Italy, Switzerland, among others.

Provider
Raiffeisen Bank International AG - Institutional Equity
Raiffeisen Bank International AG - Institutional Equity

The Institutional Equity Research team of Raiffeisen Bank International AG covers 85 stocks from Austria, Central & Eastern Europe with sell-side research and thus levers our local broker status with excellent company relationships. For corporates in Austria, CEE and Western Europe, we offer co-sponsored research, which includes research coverage and marketing activities to investors. Additionally, through our Spotlight Research product we also shed light on leading European small and micro-caps, seeking greater visibility with investors.

The Institutional Equity Research team consists of roughly 15 analysts, both in Vienna and the CEE countries. Our analysts provide long-standing sector expertise in tandem with profound local market know how and a sectoral approach across the entire region.

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