TURKEY - 1Q20 Earnings Estimates, 28 April

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TURKEY - 1Q20 Earnings Estimates, 28 April


- 1Q20 Earnings season recently kicked off with the TAVHLs and TTRAK, whose financials were announced last week.
- For our coverage universe, we expect 10.2% YoY revenue growth with a slight 2.2% and 2.5% YoY deterioration in EBITDA and net profit, respectively. Weak results of industrials and aviation sectors are to put pressure on general EBITDA and earnings outlook.
- We estimate net earnings of banks will be 30.9% YoY higher and increase by 23.8% QoQ. Higher CPI-linker income contribution, flatening swap costs and substantial loan growth are the main themes of 1Q20.
- For non-financials, we expect a slight improvement in revenues mostly stemming from price hikes and depreciation in TL. However, EBITDA generation and net profit level compared to same period in the previous year will be under pressure, mostly due to lower capacity utilizations and F/X losses. Weak results of industrials and aviation sector put pressure on non-financials outlook.
- We expect stronger results for GARAN, VAKBN, HALKB, YKBNK, BIMAS, SOKM, MGROS, SODA, ANACM and YATAS while we foresee weaker results for TUPRS, PETKM, EREGL, THYAO, PGSUS, FROTO and TRKCM, for 1Q20. For financials, we expect AKBNK, ISCTR and TSKB to announce relatively weaker 1Q20E results than other banks