TURKEY - 4Q19 Estimates, 29th January
- 4Q19 Earnings season will kick off with the Garanti Banks and Sise Groups financial results on Jan 30.- For our coverage universe, we expect 6.3% YoY Revenue growth and 3.8% YoY EBITDA growth, while we calculate 12.9% QoQ lower revenues and 33.1% QoQ lower EBITDA (for non-financial companies). We expect 32.5% YoY and 29.3% QoQ lower net income for our coverage universe.
- Net earnings of banks will be 2.3% YoY lower but 12.9% QoQ higher. Through the declining interest rate environment, we will likely to see NIM expansion in 4Q19. On top of that we expect the banks net cost of risk increasing in 4Q19.
- For non-financials, we expect an improvement in revenue and EBITDA generation compared to same period in the previous year, but net earnings will be under pressure, mostly due to F/X losses.
- We expect stronger results for GARAN, AKBNK, HALKB, VAKBN, PGSUS, THYAO, TAVHL, EKGYO, TOASO, DOAS, TTRAK and YATAS, while we foresee weaker results for YKBNK, TUPRS, EREGL and TRKCM for 4Q19.
The Institutional Equity Research team of Raiffeisen Bank International AG covers 85 stocks from Austria, Central & Eastern Europe with sell-side research and thus levers our local broker status with excellent company relationships. For corporates in Austria, CEE and Western Europe, we offer co-sponsored research, which includes research coverage and marketing activities to investors. Additionally, through our Spotlight Research product we also shed light on leading European small and micro-caps, seeking greater visibility with investors.
The Institutional Equity Research team consists of roughly 15 analysts, both in Vienna and the CEE countries. Our analysts provide long-standing sector expertise in tandem with profound local market know how and a sectoral approach across the entire region.
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