Turkey Wake-up call: Macro, Political and Equity News, 12th August
BIST dropped 1.85% yesterday as investors seemed to be pocketing some of their recent gains. After an indecisive open, BIST100 index quickly turned south and continued its ascent until the end of the day. Banks lost 2.21% on average with ISCTR and YKBNK underperforming peers. KCHOL, TOASO, CCOLA, and MGROS were among the handful gainers in the BIST100 space while EREGL, TUPRS, ASELS, THYAO, BRISA, HEKTS, DEVA, GLYHO, and INDES topped the non-bank decliners. Today, eyes will be on the monthly Monetary Policy Council meeting with the decision on policy rates due at 2PM local time. Participants in the Bloomberg survey unanimously expect the MPC to keep its benchmark weekly repo rate unchanged at 19.00% for the fifth month running, given the surge in inflation as well as continued pressure on the Lira.Separately, June'21 Industrial Production numbers are due at 10AM. Bloomberg consensus +21.7% yoy based on the estimates for calendar-adjusted series and +2.1% mom based on the seasonally & calendar-adjusted series. We foresee a slight positive open for the BIST given the overnight rebound in BIST30 futures and some recovery in lira (USDTRY at 8.63 levels vs 8.6555 at yesterday's closing bell). U.S. futures are almost unchanged in early trades while Asian markets are mostly trading with limited losses.
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