Turkey Wake-up call: Macro, Political and Equity News, 13th January

BIST climbed another 0.89% yesterday as it continued its uninterrupted rally since the start of the year that led to 11.12% in cumulative gains. Banks gained 0.91% on average, in line with the broader market, as YKBNK and HALKB outshined their peers. KRDMD, SOKM, TKFEN, TCELL, SISE, Koza Group names, ALARK, KORDS, and TURSG topped the non-bank gainers while aviation stocks, ENKAI, LOGO, AGHOL, TTRAK, and GLYHO were some of the few decliners. Today, our local macro agenda involves November'21 Industrial Production numbers due at 10AM local time. Bloomberg consensus +8.0% yoy based on the estimates for calendar-adjusted series and +0.5% mom based on the seasonally & calendar-adjusted series. Separately, November'21 Retail Sales Volume Index compiled by TurkStat is also due at 10AM. Adjusted for seasonal and working day effects, index had ascended 0.9% on a sequential basis to a new all-time-high of 142.0 in October, in its continued surge following the lifting of the Covid-19 lockdowns. BIST seems off to a negative start given the weak sentiment in global markets. U.S. futures are down c.0.2% in early trades on top of the 0.3% overnight losses after we left and Asian equity benchmarks are almost all trading in the red. Lira is a bit stronger with the USDTRY pair around the 13.60 mark vs 13.6161 at yesterday's BIST closing bell.